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Data Research DPU ab Data Research för Data Produkt Utvärdering

Sören Janstål

IT Research:

The Forecasting Report

English

Innehåll

Preface

Table of Contents

1 Main Issues of the Report S.13

• 1.1 Target Groups for Forecasting Systems
• 1.2 The Process of Collecting Information: Overview
• 1.3 Sources of Addresses
• 1.4 Selection of Relevant Systems
• 1.5 Sources of Information
• 1.6 A Remark on the Market of Forecasting Systems

2 General Classification and Short Guide to Forecasting Systems S.23

• 2.1 Which System for Which Purpose
  • 2.1.1 Operations and Forecasting
  • 2.1.2 Planning and Forecasting
  • 2.1.3 Research and Forecasting
• 2.2 Time Series Features
  • 2.2.1 Periodicity
  • 2.2.2 Length of Time Series
  • 2.2.3 Time Series Components
  • 2.2.4 Explanatory Variables and Calendar Effects
  • 2.2.5 Subjective Interventions
• 2.3 Classification of Time Series Methods
  • 2.3.1 Auto-projective Methods (Extrapolation)
  • 2.3.2 Causal Models (Regression)
• 2.4 Different Aspects of Forecasting Systems
  • 2.4.1 Pure Forecasting Systems versus Planning Systems
  • 2.4.2 Pure Forecasting Systems versus General Statistical Systems
  • 2.4.3 Pure Forecasting Systems versus General Econometric Systems
  • 2.4.4 Single Time Series versus Batch Forecasting
  • 2.4.5 Manual versus Automatic Forecast Modelling
  • 2.4.6 Forecasting Methods: Heuristically Based versus Statistically Based Methods
  • 2.4.7 User Interface: Graphical User Interface versus Command Language
  • 2.4.8 Interfaces to Databases and External Sources of Data
  • 2.4.9 System Complexity
  • 2.4.10 Pricing
  • 2.4.11 A Subjective Scoring Scheme
  • 2.4.12 Graphical Representations of Important Features

3 Product Descriptions S.59

• 3.1 Forecasting Systems
  • 3.1.1 AIDA - automatic forecasting system
  • 3.1.2 astra 2.0
  • 3.1.3 Autobox
  • 3.1.4 DrPro++
  • 3.1.5 FORCE 4
  • 3.1.6 Forecast Pro XE
  • 3.1.7 FORMAN
  • 3.1.8 FuturMaster
  • 3.1.9 microTrend & microForecast
  • 3.1.10 SCA
  • 3.1.11 Smart Forecast
  • 3.1.12 Time Trends
  • 3.1.13 Time Series Expert (TSE)
  • 3.1.14 tsMetrix
• 3.2 Statistical Packages
  • 3.2.1 AGSS
  • 3.2.2 Genstat
  • 3.2.3 Minitab
  • 3.2.4 NCSS
  • 3.2.5 S-Plus
  • 3.2.6 SAS
  • 3.2.7 SPSS Trends
  • 3.2.8 Statgraphics
  • 3.2.9 Statistica
  • 3.2.10 TURBO Spring-Stat
  • 3.2.11 UNISTAT
• 3.3 Planning and Forecasting Systems
  • 3.3.1 ADAPTA DLS - FBS
  • 3.3.2 APPS
  • 3.3.3 Demand Solutions
  • 3.3.4 LOGOL
  • 3.3.5 PEER Planner
  • 3.3.6 SKEP
  • 3.3.7 System A3
• 3.4 Econometric Systems S.138
  • 3.4.1 Beta
  • 3.4.2 EViews
  • 3.4.3 Microfit 4.0
  • 3.4.4 PC-Give Professional
  • 3.4.5 RATS
  • 3.4.6 Soritec
  • 3.4.7 TSP 4.4
• 3.5 Libraries
  • 3.5.1 FANPAC
  • 3.5.2 SSATS 2.0
  • 3.5.3 Time Series (TS) GAUSS Library
  • 3.5.4 TSM

4 Results of the Questionnaire with Comments S.163

• 4.1 Hardware Platform and Operating System (Section 1)
• 4.2 Forecasting Techniques and Related Methods (Section 2)
  • 4.2.1 Naive forecasting techniques/ benchmark forecasting (Question 2.1)
  • 4.2.2 Growth Curves (Section 2.2)
  • 4.2.3 Decomposition methods (Section 2.3)
  • 4.2.4 Exponential Smoothing (Section 2.4)
  • 4.2.5 Static and Dynamic Regression (Section 2.5)
  • 4.2.6 Box-Jenkins (Section 2.6)
  • 4.2.7 Forecast Combinations (Section 2.7)
  • 4.2.8 Other Analysis and Forecasting Approaches (Section 2.8)
  • 4.2.9 Evaluation of Residuals, Forecasts, and Forecast Errors (Section 2.9)
  • 4.2.10 Forecasting Formula (Section 2.10)
• 4.3 Database, User Interface, Graphics, and Reports (Section 3)
  • 4.3.1 Data Handling and Databases (Section 3.1)
  • 4.3.2 User Interface (Section 3.2)
  • 4.3.3 Graphics (Section 3.3)
  • 4.3.4 Log Files and Reports (Section 3.4)
• 4.4 Special Features
  • 4.4.1 Calendar Data and Special Effects (Section 4.1)
  • 4.4.2 Missing Values (Section 4.2)
  • 4.4.3 Short Series, New Product Forecasts, Fashion Wear Forecasts, and Sporadic Demand (Section 4.3)
  • 4.4.4 Product Hierarchies (Section 4.4)
  • 4.4.5 Automatic Forecasting Systems (Section 4.5)
  • 4.4.6 Forecast Adjustment and Handling of Subjective Knowledge (Section 4.6)
  • 4.4.7 Planning (Section 4.7)
• 4.5 Issues on System Installation
  • 4.5.1 System Installation (Section 5.1)
  • 4.5.2 Systems Stability and Bugs (Sections 5.2 and 5.3)
• 4.6 Documentation, Support, and User Profile
  • 4.6.1 Documentation and Online-Help Facilities (Section 6.1)
  • 4.6.2 Online and Internet Support (Section 6.2)

5 Do's and Dont's S.555

6 Appendix S.559

• 6.1 References to the Sources of Information
• 6.2 Distributors
• 6.3 Prices of Selected Systems
• 6.4 Forecasting Software not Included to the Survey
• 6.5 Output Samples of Beta and Autobox

7 Abbreviations S.607

• 7.1 General Abbreviations
• 7.2 Abbreviations of Names of Systems

8 References S.613

• 8.1 General Introductory References to Forecasting
• 8.2 References to the Research and Systems Literature

Subject Index S.625

List of Figures and Tables S,.637

Feedback S.639

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